BP Energy Outlook 2030 says that World Energy growth over the next 20 years will be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil. We will also see energy efficiency measures accelerate with new technology coming in.
The next 20 years is expected to see primary use of energy grow by 40%; with 93% of that coming from non-OECD countries. Over the same period, energy intensity(a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output) is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies.
The diversification of energy sources will increase and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%. Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal & oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP’s forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The Energy Outlook 2030 assumes continued policy action to address concerns about both climate change and energy security, based on the current trend of political commitment.