How is the global solar market going to be like in 2014?
Two views have been shared; one by NPD Solarbuzz, a market research company and Deutsche Bank.
According to the report from NPD Solarbuzz, Solar photovoltaic (PV) demand is poised for explosive growth in 2014, with global installation expected to be 49 GW from the 36 GW in 2013. The growth is expected to be driven by leading module suppliers and project developers that will have returned to profitability during 2013.
Another forecast made is that by the end of 2014, many of the leading Chinese crystalline silicon module suppliers will be reporting silicon and non-silicon costs below $0.50 per watt. The resulting growth in operating margins will then provide a solid foundation upon which to guide new capacity additions that have been on hold now.
Source: NPD Solarbuzz Quarterly, December 2013.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank report calls the year 2014 as the “second gold rush” for solar PV industry with base demand expectations of 46 GW and top demand of 56 GW.
The report highlights China, Japan and USA as the key markets for the year 2014.
Deutsche Bank’s base case demand estimates for China go from around 8GW in 2013 to 12GW in 2014, while the Japanese market is expected to increase from around 7GW in 2013 to around 8GW in 2014. The US, the third major market, is expected to see demand increase from 6GW in 2013 to around 8GW in 2014.
The report says that PV industry was currently competitive without subsidies in at least 19 markets globally and expected more markets to reach grid parity in 2014 as balance-of-system prices continued to decline, despite cost-per-watt reductions slowing.
The Deutsche Bank report also talks about growth from emerging economies such as India, South Africa, South America, etc.
With elections looming large and solar being very policy driven sector, India can hope that the above forecasts work for this country as well. We will keep our fingers crossed and hope for the good in the new year.